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. 2020 Aug:82:104306.
doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306. Epub 2020 Apr 8.

Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS

Kaihao Liang  1
Affiliations

Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS

Kaihao Liang. Infect Genet Evol. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.

Keywords: 2008 MSC: R181.2; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Infectious kinetics; MERS; SARS.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Cases of MERS in Saudi Arabia.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Real cases and simulation result for COVID-19. The sample sizes for Hubei, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Henan are all 58, Chi-Squares are 3158.95, 36.94, 110.97, 135.22, and F-Statistics are 14525.04, 54763.65, 15502.61, 69710.64, respectively.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Real cases and simulation result for SARS. The sample sizes for national, Guangdong, Beijing and Hong Kong are all 71, Chi-Squares are 30.92, 2.38, 5.72, 0.47, and F-Statistics are 21136.76, 1883.17, 124221.70, 24350.03, respectively.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Real cases and simulation result for MERS.The sample sizes for C#1, C#2, C#3, and C#4 are 17， 13， 12， 12， Chi-Squares are 7.52, 0.28, 10.74, 0.26, and F-Statistics are 19345.43, 17782.60, 2624.14, 18312.06, respectively.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Growth rate for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Multiplication cycle for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Infection inhibition constant for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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