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. 2015 Jan:112:1-18.
doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.09.006. Epub 2014 Oct 13.

Learning during a crisis: The SARS epidemic in Taiwan

Daniel Bennett  1 , Chun-Fang Chiang  2 , Anup Malani  1   3
Affiliations

Learning during a crisis: The SARS epidemic in Taiwan

Daniel Bennett et al. J Dev Econ. 2015 Jan.

Abstract

SARS struck Taiwan in 2003, causing a national crisis. Many people feared that SARS would spread through the health care system, and outpatient visits fell by more than 30% in the course of a few weeks. We examine how both public information and the behavior and opinions of peers contributed to this reaction. We identify a peer effect through a difference-in-difference comparison of longtime residents and recent arrivals, who are less socially connected. Although several forms of social interaction may contribute to this pattern, social learning is a plausible explanation for our finding. We find that people respond to both public information and to their peers. In a dynamic simulation based on the regressions, social interactions substantially magnify the response to SARS.

Keywords: Crisis; Economic epidemiology; Peer effects; Prevalence response; SARS; Social learning.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Inference about SARS risk from a change in visits.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
SARS cases by two-week period during 2003.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Aggregate outpatient visits by two-week period: 2001–2003.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Visits for SARS-affected and -unaffected townships during 2003.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Visits by diagnosis during 2003.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
News coverage of the SARS epidemic.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
The coefficient of variation within and across groups by two-week period.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
The prevalence response elasticity by information source.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
The social learning estimate with alternative mover definitions.
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
The simulated path of aggregate visits under alternate scenarios.
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Simulated path of respiratory visits under alternate scenarios.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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