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. 2020 Nov:2:100023.
doi: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023. Epub 2020 Mar 23.

1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

W W Koczkodaj  1 , M A Mansournia  2 , W Pedrycz  3 , A Wolny-Dominiak  4 , P F Zabrodskii  5 , D Strzałka  6 , T Armstrong  1 , A H Zolfaghari  1 , M Dębski  7 , J Mazurek  8
Affiliations

1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

W W Koczkodaj et al. Glob Epidemiol. 2020 Nov.

Abstract

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
WHO #31 report countries, territories or areas with reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, 07 March 2020.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
WHO situation report for China.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Prediction of 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 by WHO situation report data for outside China.
Unlabelled Image
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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