Pandemic Surge Models in the Time of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: Wrong or Useful?
- PMID: 32298421
- PMCID: PMC7197037
- DOI: 10.7326/M20-1956
Pandemic Surge Models in the Time of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: Wrong or Useful?
Abstract
Public health decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic involves tradeoffs, uncertainty, and values, and models have been developed to inform administrative and policy decision makers to forecast demand for hospital resources, to understand hospital capacity constraints, and to determine when peak demand occurs. This editorial discusses fundamental differences among 3 models in current use.
Comment on
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Estimating the Maximum Capacity of COVID-19 Cases Manageable per Day Given a Health Care System's Constrained Resources.Ann Intern Med. 2020 Sep 1;173(5):407-410. doi: 10.7326/M20-1169. Epub 2020 Apr 16. Ann Intern Med. 2020. PMID: 32298412 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
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- Fine PEM. John Brownlee and the measurement of infectiousness: an historical study in epidemic theory. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society). 1979;142:347-62.
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