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. 2020 Jul 10:725:138539.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138539. Epub 2020 Apr 6.

Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up

Aurelio Tobías  1
Affiliations

Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up

Aurelio Tobías. Sci Total Environ. .

Abstract

From the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Spain has been following the footsteps of that in Italy very closely. We have analyzed the trends of incident cases, deaths, and intensive care unit admissions (ICU) in both countries before and after their respective national lockdowns using an interrupted time-series design. Data was analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression using an interaction model to estimate the change in trends. After the first lockdown, incidence trends were considerably reduced in both countries. However, although the slopes have been flattened for all outcomes, the trends kept rising. During the second lockdown, implementing more restrictive measures for mobility, it has been a change in the trend slopes for both countries in daily incident cases and ICUs. This improvement indicates that the efforts overtaken are being successful in flattening the epidemic curve, and reinforcing the belief that we must hold on.

Keywords: Intensive care unit admissions; Interrupted time-series; Lockdown; Mortality; SARS-CoV-2.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Unlabelled Image
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trends and daily observed incident diagnosed cases, deaths and ICU admissions in Italy and Spain, between February 24th to April 5th.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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