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. 2020 Jul;75(7):1813-1815.
doi: 10.1111/all.14327. Epub 2020 May 11.

Advanced forecasting of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Italy, Germany, Spain, and New York State

Giovanni Sotgiu  1 , Alberto G Gerli  2 , Stefano Centanni  3 , Monica Miozzo  4   5 , G Walter Canonica  6 , Joan B Soriano  7   8 , J Christian Virchow  9
Affiliations

Advanced forecasting of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Italy, Germany, Spain, and New York State

Giovanni Sotgiu et al. Allergy. 2020 Jul.
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Dr Virchow, Dr Soriano, Dr Canonica, Dr Miozzo, Dr Centanni, Dr Gerli, and Dr Sotgui have nothing to disclose.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
A, The model accuracy curve is achieved using a 3rd‐grade polynomial curve in Italy, Germany, Spain, and New York State. It highlights the differences between real and simulated data after inputting the first 17 d. B, The curves depicting the predictions of the expected deaths are obtained by a 3rd‐grade polynomial curve up to daily peak and later by a parametric 5PL asymmetrical sigmoidal. The predictions are calculated starting from the first 17 d. The curve of expected deaths per country splits considering the number of days supposed to reach daily peak after the lockdown (28 d: upper curve; 21 d: lower curve)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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MeSH terms