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. 2020 Jan;49(1):68-76.

Prediction Mortality Rate Due to the Road-Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan

Nurbek Igissinov  1   2   3   4 , Alma Aubakirova  5 , Galiya Orazova  6 , Gulnur Akpolatova  7   3 , Saltanat Urazova  8 , Dinar Tarzhanova  7   3 , Akmaral Zhantureyeva  7   3 , Yerlan Kuandykov  9
Affiliations

Prediction Mortality Rate Due to the Road-Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan

Nurbek Igissinov et al. Iran J Public Health. 2020 Jan.

Abstract

Background: As a result of the road traffic accidents 1.25 mln. of working-age people die each year on the roads. Frequency of the RTA is 11 times higher in our country than in Europe, that influence on demographic and economic situation in the republic. Creation of the math modeling and prediction of traffic mortality rate in Kazakhstan will allow to develop measure on its decrease.

Methods: Short-term dotted prediction of population mortality level of Kazakhstan was used, in particular - methods of regressive analysis. General prognosis throughout the country up to 2021 was made on the basis of data for 1999-2018. The more relevant method for prediction is exponential function taking into account the features of mortality rate level trend.

Results: Prediction of traffic fatalities without division into the age-related groups for 2019 is 2132±181 case with a probability 2/3. Expected levels for 2020-2027 cases, for 2021-1927 cases.Annual mortality decrease rate according to the 0-19 age-related at an average is 6.4% among men and 5.8% among women, according to age group as a whole - by 6.2%; from 20 up to 64 age related group - 5.1 % on all population category; older 65 age -group is by 2.2 %, 3.7 % among men, 2.9% among women as a whole.

Conclusion: In the foreseeable future the number of traffic deaths in Kazakhstan will tend to decrease at a slower pace. Mortality rates due to road traffic accidents among working-age men will be 3 times higher than women in this age group.

Keywords: Kazakhstan; Mortality; Prediction; Road-traffic accidents.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interests The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1:
Fig. 1:
Dynamics of mortality from traffic accidents among the population of Kazakhstan in the age category from 20 to 64 years, 1999–2018
Fig. 2:
Fig. 2:
Exponential function approximation of the traffic accident mortality cases in Kazakhstan across three age groups, 2008–2018
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. World Health Organization (2015). Global status report on road safety 2015. 340 p.
    1. World Health Organization (2008). Global burden of disease: 2004 update. 160 p.
    1. World Health Organization (2018). Global status report on road safety 2018. 424 p.
    1. Buleshova AM, Buleshov MA, Kudryavtsev V, et al. (2016) Jepidemiologija travmatizma v g. Shymkent Juzhno-Kazahstanskoj oblasti Respubliki Kazahstan: obosnovanie neobhodimosti sozdanija municipal''nogo registra travm (Epidemiology of injuries in Shymkent, Southern Kazakhstan: justification for the need for establishment of municipal injury registry) [in Russian]. Jekologija Cheloveka, 6: 55–61.
    1. Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated July 4, 2008 55-IV “On Amendments and Additions to Certain Legislative Acts of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Road Safety” [in Russian].

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