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. 2020 Aug;26(8):1915-1917.
doi: 10.3201/eid2608.200536. Epub 2020 Apr 22.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Potential, Iran, 2020

Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Shayesteh R Ferdosi, Sylvia K Ofori, Yiseul Lee, Amna Tariq, Gerardo Chowell

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission Potential, Iran, 2020

Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

To determine the transmission potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Iran in 2020, we estimated the reproduction number as 4.4 (95% CI 3.9-4.9) by using a generalized growth model and 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-8.1) by using epidemic doubling time. The reproduction number decreased to 1.55 after social distancing interventions were implemented.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; Iran; SARS-CoV-2; communicable diseases; coronavirus disease; epidemiology; infections; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.

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Figure
Figure
Estimates of transmission potential for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Iran, 2020. A) Growth rate, r; B) scaling of the growth rate parameter, p; C) mean basic reproduction number, R0; and D) fit of the generalized growth model (method 1) to the Iran data, assuming Poisson error structure as of March 1, 2020. Dashed lines indicate 95% CIs.
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