The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States

Abstract

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Cost reduction; Costs and spending; Diseases; Economic burden; Health policy; Hospital costs; Intensive care units; Prescription drug costs; Value; cost.

EXHIBIT 3. Median direct medical costs of COVID-19 in the US when including only costs during the course of the infection, by percent of population that gets infected with SARS-CoV-2

SOURCE Authors analysis. NOTES The line represents a situation that uses the currently reported values for key parameters (explained in the notes to exhibit 2) listed in appendix exhibit 1 (see note 22 in text). The band depicts the range of the median direct medial costs, where the lower bound of the shaded area represents a situation that decreases the reported values of key parameters to the lowest values tested, while the upper bound represents a situation that increases the reported values of key parameters to the highest values tested (see the notes to exhibit 2).

EXHIBIT 4. Median direct medical costs of COVID-19 in the US, including costs during the course of the infection and one year after hospital discharge, by percent of population that gets infected with SARS-CoV-2

SOURCE Authors analysis NOTES The line represents a situation that uses the currently reported values for key parameters (explained in the notes to exhibit 2) listed in appendix exhibit 1 (see note 22 in text). The band depicts the range of the median direct medial costs, where the lower bound of the shaded area represents a situation that decreases the reported values of key parameters to the lowest values tested, while the upper bound represents a situation that increases the reported values of key parameters to the highest values tested (see the notes to exhibit 2).