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. 2020 May 15;43(7):4943-4949.
doi: 10.1002/mma.6345. Epub 2020 Mar 24.

Dynamic models for Coronavirus Disease 2019 and data analysis

Nian Shao  1 , Min Zhong  2 , Yue Yan  3 , HanShuang Pan  1 , Jin Cheng  1   4 , Wenbin Chen  1   4
Affiliations

Dynamic models for Coronavirus Disease 2019 and data analysis

Nian Shao et al. Math Methods Appl Sci. .

Abstract

In this letter, two time delay dynamic models, a Time Delay Dynamical-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (TDD-NCP) model and Fudan-Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) model, are introduced to track the data of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The TDD-NCP model was developed recently by Chengąŕs group in Fudan and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE). The TDD-NCP model introduced the time delay process into the differential equations to describe the latent period of the epidemic. The Fudan-CDCC model was established when Wenbin Chen suggested to determine the kernel functions in the TDD-NCP model by the public data from CDCC. By the public data of the cumulative confirmed cases in different regions in China and different countries, these models can clearly illustrate that the containment of the epidemic highly depends on early and effective isolations.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The tendency of the outbreak for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in some cities in China and in Singapore [Colour figure can be viewed at http://wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Figure 2
Figure 2
The simulation results for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in the Diamond Princess Cruise [Colour figure can be viewed at http://wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Figure 3
Figure 3
Possible future scenarios for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in Japan (without the cruise) [Colour figure can be viewed at http://wileyonlinelibrary.com]
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. Chen Y, Cheng J, Jiang X, Xu X. The reconstruction and prediction algorithm of the fractional TDD for the local outbreak of COVID‐19. arXiv:2002.10302v1; 2020.
    1. Shao N, Shao N, Chen Y, Cheng J, Chen W. Some novel statistical time delay dynamic model by statistics data from CCDC on Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia submitted to Journal of Control Theory and Applications (in Chinese); 2020.

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