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. 2020 Jul;92(7):868-882.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.25885. Epub 2020 Apr 25.

Understanding epidemic data and statistics: A case study of COVID-19

Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi  1 , Majid Alizadeh  2 , Pegah Derakhshan  3 , Peyman Babazadeh  4 , Arash Jahandideh  5
Affiliations

Understanding epidemic data and statistics: A case study of COVID-19

Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi et al. J Med Virol. 2020 Jul.

Abstract

The 2019 novel-coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries with approximately 1197405 confirmed cases (by 5th April). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which got affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies are critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show that more than 80% of infected are mild cases of disease, around 14% of infected have severe complications, and about 5% are categorized as critical disease victims. Today's report (5th April 2020; daily updates in the prepared website) shows that the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632, and 96092, respectively. Calculating the total case fatality rate (CFR) of Italy (4th April 2020), about 13.3% of confirmed cases have passed away. Compared with South Korea's rate of 1.8% (seven times lower than Italy) and China's 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. Some effective policies that yielded significant changes in the trend of cases were the lockdown policy in China, Italy, and Spain (the effect observed after some days), the shutdown of all nonessential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea, and reducing working hours in Iran.

Keywords: biostatistics and bioinformatics; coronavirus; data processing; epidemiology; infection; test statistics; virus classification.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Transmission of coronavirus disease 2019‐2020 (COVID‐19); blue nodes represent regions with confirmed COVID‐19 cases, and red nodes represent the regions with COVID‐19 causes deaths
Figure 2
Figure 2
COVID‐19 global epidemic data and statistics of (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (C) new confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, and (D) normalized new confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases
Figure 3
Figure 3
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of China (mainland), Hubei province, and China excluding Hubei. A‐C, New (confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases). D‐F, Normal data (for confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases). G‐I, Confirmed and death cases. J‐L, Normal data of confirmed and death cases
Figure 4
Figure 4
Confirmed death and confirmed recovered regression mean absolute error data for COVID‐19 transmission through (A,B) China (mainland), (C,D) Hubei province, and (E,F) China excluding Hubei
Figure 5
Figure 5
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of South Korea (A‐D), and between counties (South Korea, Iran, Italy, and China). For South Korea: (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized data, (C) new data, and (D) normalized new data. To compare between countries: (E) confirmed cases, (F) death cases, (G) confirmed rate, and (I) new confirmed cases
Figure 6
Figure 6
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of the United States: (A) Confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized data for confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (C) confirmed cases of different countries (the United States, China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran), and (D) death cases of the same countries, (E) new confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (F) normalized data for new confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (G) confirmed death regression mean absolute error data for COVID‐19 transmission through the United States
Figure 7
Figure 7
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of Italy: (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized data, (C) normalized new data. Comparison of COVID‐19 statistics between China and Italy: (D) Confirmed cases, (E) death cases, (F) new confirmed cases, and (G) new death cases
Figure 8
Figure 8
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of Spain: (A) normalized data for confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) new confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (C) confirmed cases of different countries (Spain, China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran), and (D) death cases of the same countries
Figure 9
Figure 9
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of Iran: (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized data, (C) new data, and (D) normalized new data
Figure 10
Figure 10
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of Japan: (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized data for confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases
Figure 11
Figure 11
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of France: (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (B) normalized data for confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, (C) confirmed cases of different countries (France, China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran), and (D) death cases of the same countries
Figure 12
Figure 12
COVID‐19 epidemic data and statistics of Germany: (A) confirmed, recovered, and death COVID‐19 cases, and (B) confirmed cases of different countries (Germany, China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran)
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