Clinically high-risk breast cancer displays markedly discordant molecular risk predictions between the MammaPrint and EndoPredict tests

Abstract

Inter-test concordance between the MammaPrint and the EndoPredict tests used to predict the risk of recurrence in breast cancer was evaluated in 94 oestrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancers. We correlated histopathological data with clinical risk estimation as defined in the MINDACT trial. 42.6% (40/94) of cases were high-risk by MammaPrint, 44.7% (42/94) by EndoPredict (EPclin), and 45.7% (43/94) by clinical risk definition. Thirty-six percent of genomic risk predictions were discordant with a low inter-test correlation between EndoPredict and MammaPrint (p = 0.012; κ = 0.27, 95% CI [0.069, 0.46]). Clinical risk stratification did not correlate with MammaPrint (p = 0.476) but highly correlated with EndoPredict (p < 0.001). Consequently, clinically high-risk tumours (n = 43) were more frequently high-risk by EndoPredict than by MammaPrint (76.6% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.004), with 44% of cases discordantly classified and no significant association between genomic risk predictions (p = 0.294). Clinicians need to be aware that clinical pre-stratification can profoundly influence multigenomic test performance.

Fig. 1. Results as proportions of low and high-risk predictions.

Top row displays whole cohort (n = 94) Left: Stratified according to clinical criteria of the MINDACT study (Cardoso et al., NEJM 2016), middle: with EndoPredict, right: with MammaPrint. Bottom row displays clinically high-risk cases. Left: Clinically high-risk cases (n = 43) further stratified with EndoPredict (middle) and MammaPrint (right).