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. 2020 Apr 27:tobaccocontrol-2019-055482.
doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055482. Online ahead of print.

Budgetary impact from multiple perspectives of sustained antitobacco national media campaigns to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking

Michael V Maciosek  1 , Brian S Armour  2 , Stephen D Babb  2 , Steven P Dehmer  3 , Elizabeth S Grossman  3 , David M Homa  2 , Amy B LaFrance  3 , Robert Rodes  2 , Xu Wang  2 , Zack Xu  3 , Zhuo Yang  4 , Kakoli Roy  5
Affiliations

Budgetary impact from multiple perspectives of sustained antitobacco national media campaigns to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking

Michael V Maciosek et al. Tob Control. .

Abstract

Background: High-intensity antitobacco media campaigns are a proven strategy to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking. While buy-in from multiple stakeholders is needed to launch meaningful health policy, the budgetary impact of sustained media campaigns from multiple payer perspectives is unknown.

Methods: We estimated the budgetary impact and time to breakeven from societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives of national antitobacco media campaigns in the USA. Campaigns of 1, 5 and 10 years of durations were assessed in a microsimulation model to estimate the 10 and 20-year health and budgetary impact. Simulation model inputs were obtained from literature and both pubic use and proprietary data sets.

Results: The microsimulation predicts that a 10-year national smoking cessation campaign would produce net savings of $10.4, $5.1, $1.4, $3.6 and $0.2 billion from the societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives, respectively. National antitobacco media campaigns of 1, 5 and 10-year durations could produce net savings for Medicaid and Medicare within 2 years, and for private insurers within 6-9 years. A 10-year campaign would reduce adult cigarette smoking prevalence by 1.2 percentage points, prevent 23 500 smoking-attributable deaths over the first 10 years. In sensitivity analysis, media campaign costs would be offset by reductions in medical care spending of smoking among all payers combined within 6 years in all tested scenarios.

Conclusions: 1, 5 and 10-year antitobacco media campaigns all yield net savings within 10 years from all perspectives. Multiyear campaigns yield substantially higher savings than a 1-year campaign.

Keywords: budgetary impact; cigarette smoking; economic analysis; media campaign; national programmes.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: MVM, SPD, ESG, ABL and ZX received funding for this work through a research contract between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and their employer.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Percentage point difference in cigarette smoking prevalence, media campaign scenarios compared with no campaign, US adults aged 18+.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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