Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators

Abstract

It is thought that there are not enough mechanical ventilators in the United States for every patient who may need one during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there has been no analysis that measures the potential magnitude of the problem or proposes a solution. In this article I combine the pandemic forecasting model used by the federal government with estimates of ventilator availability from the literature to assess the expected shortage under various scenarios. I then propose that the federal government organize a national effort for ventilators to be exchanged between states to take advantage of the intertemporal differences in demand peaks. I evaluate versions of this proposal, including use of the national stockpile, to estimate the potentially substantial number of lives that could be saved. In the absence of other viable solutions, the government should begin this effort in earnest, or else make preparations for such coordination should the country face another pandemic in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Government programs and policies; Hospitals; Intensive care units; Mortality; Pandemics; Patient outcomes; Public health; State issues; Ventilators; access to care; health policy.