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. 2020 Aug;81(2):318-356.
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.031. Epub 2020 Apr 29.

The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence is the key factor for deconfinement in France

Chloé Dimeglio  1 , Jean-Michel Loubes  2 , Benjamin Deporte  2 , Martine Dubois  3 , Justine Latour  4 , Jean-Michel Mansuy  4 , Jacques Izopet  3
Affiliations

The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence is the key factor for deconfinement in France

Chloé Dimeglio et al. J Infect. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

A new virus, SARS-CoV-2, has spread world-wide since December 2019, probably affecting millions of people and killing thousands. Failure to anticipate the spread of the virus now seriously threatens many health systems. We have designed a model for predicting the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France, which is based on seroprevalence and makes it possible to anticipate the deconfinement strategy.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; deconfinement; seroprevalence; statistical model.

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Figures

Figure 1
Fig. 1
Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection per day from January 22, 2020 to March 30, 2021 according to the seroprevalence before and after containment. a: no containment, b: seroprevalence before 8.3% and after 17.5%, c: seroprevalence before 15.4% and after 29.1%, d: seroprevalence before 31.9% and after 49%, e: seroprevalence before 40% and after 56.7%.
Figure 2
Fig. 2
Progressive deconfinement strategies and their impact on infection rebound. a: complete removal of containment on June 30, b: complete removal of containment on October 25.
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