Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran

Abstract

SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol'-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces.

Keywords: COVID-19; Climate; Iran; Outbreak; Sensitivity analysis.

Graphical abstract

Fig. 1

(a): Classification of Iran climates, (b): Outbreak of COVID-19 based on first observation.

Fig. 2

The scatter plots of the MLP model.

Fig. 3

(a): Contour plot of movement-Population density and infection rate, (b): Bubble scatter plot of average temperature-humidity and infection rate in different climates, (c): Infection rate in different climates, (d): First order effect of Sobol'-Jansen Method.

Fig. 4

(a) Number of confirmed, (b) Population density, (c) Movement, (d) Average temperature, (e) Average rain, (f) Humidity, (g) Wind speed, (h) Solar radiation and (i) COVID-19 infection rate.