A new approach to modeling the fade-out threshold of coronavirus disease

Tianxiang Yue¹, Zemeng Fan², Bin Fan³, Zhengping Du³, John P Wilson⁴, Xiaozhe Yin⁵, Na Zhao⁶, Ying'an Wang⁷, Chenghu Zhou³

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China. Electronic address: yue@lreis.ac.cn.
² State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China. Electronic address: fanzm@lreis.ac.cn.
³ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0374, USA.
⁵ Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA.
⁶ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.
⁷ Department for Population Data, China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing 100081, China.

PMID: 32363046
PMCID: PMC7195097
DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.016

A new approach to modeling the fade-out threshold of coronavirus disease

Tianxiang Yue et al. Sci Bull (Beijing). 2020.

. 2020 Aug 15;65(15):1225-1227.

doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.016. Epub 2020 Apr 13.

Authors

Tianxiang Yue¹, Zemeng Fan², Bin Fan³, Zhengping Du³, John P Wilson⁴, Xiaozhe Yin⁵, Na Zhao⁶, Ying'an Wang⁷, Chenghu Zhou³

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China. Electronic address: yue@lreis.ac.cn.
² State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China. Electronic address: fanzm@lreis.ac.cn.
³ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0374, USA.
⁵ Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA.
⁶ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.
⁷ Department for Population Data, China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing 100081, China.

PMID: 32363046
PMCID: PMC7195097
DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.016

No abstract available

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Figures

**Fig. 1**
The $R_{0}$ values based on the new model in Wuhan and Hubei.

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

1. Zhu N., Zhang D.Y., Wang W.L. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:727–737. - PMC - PubMed
1. Tang B., Bragazzi N.L., Li Q. An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) Infect Dis Model. 2020;5:248–255. - PMC - PubMed
1. Gu C., Zhu J., Sun Y. The inflection point about COVID-19 may have passed. Sci Bull. 2020;65:865–867. - PMC - PubMed
1. Guan W.J., Ni Z.Y., Hu Y. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med. 2020 https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Ross R.A. John Murray; London: 1911. The prevention of malaria.

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A new approach to modeling the fade-out threshold of coronavirus disease

Affiliations

A new approach to modeling the fade-out threshold of coronavirus disease

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