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. 2020 May 13;6(2):e19097.
doi: 10.2196/19097.

Estimation of the Probability of Reinfection With COVID-19 by the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed-Undetectable-Susceptible Model

Alexander Victor Okhuese  1
Affiliations

Estimation of the Probability of Reinfection With COVID-19 by the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed-Undetectable-Susceptible Model

Alexander Victor Okhuese. JMIR Public Health Surveill. .

Abstract

Background: With the sensitivity of the polymerase chain reaction test used to detect the presence of the virus in the human host, the worldwide health community has been able to record a large number of the recovered population.

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of reinfection in the recovered class and the model equations, which exhibits the disease-free equilibrium state for the coronavirus disease.

Methods: The model differential equation was evaluated for the disease-free equilibrium for the case of reinfection as well as the existence and stability criteria for the disease, using the model proportions. This evaluation shows that the criteria for a local or worldwide asymptotic stability with a basic reproductive number (R0=0) were satisfied. Hence, there is a chance of no secondary reinfections from the recovered population, as the rate of incidence of the recovered population vanishes (ie, B=0).

Results: With a total of about 900,000 infected cases worldwide, numerical simulations for this study were carried out to complement the analytical results and investigate the effect that the implementation of quarantine and observation procedures has on the projection of further virus spread.

Conclusions: As shown by the results, the proportion of the infected population, in the absence of a curative vaccination, will continue to grow worldwide; meanwhile, the recovery rate will continue slowly, which means that the ratio of infection rate to recovery rate will determine the death rate that is recorded. Most significant for this study is the rate of reinfection by the recovered population, which will decline to zero over time as the virus is cleared clinically from the system of the recovered class.

Keywords: COVID-19; SEIRUS; coronavirus; disease; infectious; math; model; outbreak; pandemic; reinfection.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
A world map showing the number of cases for each country with a coronavirus disease case.
Figure 2
Figure 2
A cumulative case chart showing the number of cases of coronavirus disease.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Chart of recovered and infectious compartments for coronavirus disease.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Chart of the rate of reinfection of the recovered compartment from coronavirus disease.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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