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. 2020 Jul;52(7):498-505.
doi: 10.1080/23744235.2020.1759817. Epub 2020 May 6.

Risk factors for disease progression in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

Wei Hou  1 , Wei Zhang  1 , Ronghua Jin  1 , Lianchun Liang  1 , Bin Xu  1 , Zhongjie Hu  1
Affiliations

Risk factors for disease progression in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

Wei Hou et al. Infect Dis (Lond). 2020 Jul.

Abstract

Background: To investigate the risk factors related to aggravation and clinical outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.Methods: We performed a retrospective study on the risk factors for disease progression of cases with COVID-19. Based on the clinical types, the patients were divided into a progression group and an improvement group. Multivariable logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were performed to explore the risk factors for disease progression.Results: A total of 101 patients were included in this study; diseases progression occurred in 17 patients, 84 patients improved, 6 were transferred to intensive care unit (ICU), and 5 died. The mean time to obtain negative nucleic acid results was 12.5 ± 5.0 days. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that age (OR, 0.104; p = .002), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR, 0.093; p < .001) and lymphocyte count (OR, 3.397; p = .022) were risk factors for disease progression. ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC of age, CRP and lymphocyte count for disease progression were 0.873, 0.911 and 0.817, respectively.Conclusions: Older age increased CRP and decreased lymphocyte count resulted in potential risk factors for COVID-19 progression. This may be helpful in identifying patients whose condition worsens at an early stage.

Keywords: COVID-19; risk factors outcome.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
The change in condition and outcomes of 101 patients after admission. Among the 101 patients, 8 cases with common type showed progression of the disease, 5 of them developed a severe type, while 3 progressed to critically ill type. Three cases with severe type progressed to critically ill type, and 6 cases with the critically ill type required ICU treatment after admission during hospitalization. A total of 17 patients (16.8%) were included in the progression group and 84 patients (83.2%) in the improvement group. ICU: intensive care unit; *included in the progression group.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
ROC curve of independent risk factors for disease progression in patients with COVID-19.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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