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. 2020 Aug 10:729:139090.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139090. Epub 2020 Apr 28.

Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate: A case study for the most affected Brazilian cities

A C Auler  1 , F A M Cássaro  2 , V O da Silva  3 , L F Pires  4
Affiliations

Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate: A case study for the most affected Brazilian cities

A C Auler et al. Sci Total Environ. .

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze how meteorological conditions such as temperature, humidity and rainfall can affect the spread of COVID-19 in five Brazilian (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Manaus and Fortaleza) cities. The cities selected were those with the largest number of confirmed cases considering data of April 13. Variables such as number of cumulative cases, new daily cases and contamination rate were employed for this study. Our results showed that higher mean temperatures and average relative humidity favored the COVID-19 transmission, differently from reports from coldest countries or periods of time under cool temperatures. Thus, considering the results obtained, intersectoral policies and actions are necessary, mainly in cities where the contamination rate is increasing rapidly. Thus, prevention and protection measures should be adopted in these cities aiming to reduce transmission and the possible collapse of the health system.

Keywords: Air temperature; Coronavirus; Humidity; Meteorology; Principal component analysis; SARS-CoV2.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Unlabelled Image
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Map showing the locations with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Brazil.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Temperatures (°C) and Relative humidity (%) – maximum (red line), mean (green line) and minimum (blue line) and monthly mean (black dashed line) – of the cities registered in the period between March 13 and April 13, 2020. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Rainfall (mm) of the cities registered in the period between March 13 and April 13, 2020. The order of colors indicates the highest (red) to the lowest (blue) mean temperatures between cities. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazilian cities with higher records of new daily cases, cumulative cases and contamination rate in the period between March 13 and April 13, 2020. The order of colors indicates the highest (red) to the lowest (blue) mean temperatures (Tm) between cities. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Linear regressions between absolute humidity (g m−3) and the Covid-19 contamination rate in Brazilian cities with the highest cumulative case records in the period between March 13 and April 13, 2020. The order of colors indicates the order from the highest (red) to the lowest (blue) mean temperatures between cities. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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