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. 2020;74(4):363-372.
doi: 10.3233/CH-209004.

How we should respond to the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: A German perspective

F Jung  1 , V Krieger  2 , F T Hufert  3   4 , J-H Küpper  1   4
Affiliations

How we should respond to the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: A German perspective

F Jung et al. Clin Hemorheol Microcirc. 2020.

Abstract

Background: In the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic Germany missed to set up efficient containment measures. Consequently, the number of cases increased exponentially until a lockdown was implemented to suppress the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Fortunately, Germany has a high capability for coronavirus lab testing and more than 30,000 ICU beds. These capabilities and the lockdown turned out to be an advantage to combat the pandemic and to prevent a health-system overload.

Aim: The aim was to predict the plateau day of SARS-CoV-2 infections or deaths.

Results: The effect on the viral spread of the German measures taken and the impact on the peak of new infection cases is shown. By normalizing daily case numbers, the plateau day of the current outbreak in Germany could be calculated to be reached at April 12, 2020 (day 103 of 2020).

Conclusion: Normalized case number curves are helpful to predict the time point at which no further new infections will occur if the epidemic situation remains stable. Upon reaching the plateau day during a lockdown phase, a residual time-period of about 2-3 weeks can be utilized to prepare a safe unlocking period. As can be learned from Asian countries such as South Korea and Taiwan there must be strict rules to keep the risk of infection low. Those include social distancing, face mask wearing in combination with digital contact tracing and serosurveillance studies. Following those rules, a safe dance around the infection curve allows to keep the population at a reduced infection rate.

Keywords: COVID-19; Corona virus; SARS-CoV-2; hammer and dance strategy; herd immunity.

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Figures

Fig.1
Fig.1
New cases and doubling time during SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Germany until day 105 beginning at the 1st of January.
Fig.2
Fig.2
Cumulative case numbers of infections (coloured dots) and deaths (red triangles) in East Asian and European States.
Fig.3
Fig.3
Linear regression of normalised case numbers of infections (coloured dots) and deaths (red triangles) versus time in East Asian (Taiwan: R2 = 0.467; South-Korea: R2 = 0.199; Japan: R2 = 0.008) and European States (Germany R2 = 0.556; France: R2 = 0.073; Italy: R2 = 0.836).
Fig.4
Fig.4
Extrapolated case numbers without countermeasures in Germany. The extrapolation starts on day 67 with 797 confirmed cases and a median doubling time of 2.92 days.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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