Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 May;25(18):2000632.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632.

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Mark Jit  1   2 , Thibaut Jombart  1   3   4 , Emily S Nightingale  1 , Akira Endo  1 , Sam Abbott  1 ; LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group  5 ; W John Edmunds  1
Affiliations

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Mark Jit et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 May.

Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus disease 2019; intensive care unit; mathematical model; reproduction number; surveillance.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure
Figure
Model estimates of daily new COVID-19 infections and critical care reports in the initial phase of the epidemic compared with source data, United Kingdom, February–March 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Public Health England (PHE). Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK. London: PHE. [Accessed: 3 Apr 2020]. Available from: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/csv/coronavirus-cases_latest.csv
    1. Mizumoto K, Kagaya K, Zarebski A, Chowell G. Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(10). 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Public Health England (PHE). COVID-19 guidance and microbiology: fourth update. HPR volume 14 issue 6 (24 and 25 March). [Accessed: 28 April 2020]. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-protection-report-volu...
    1. Public Health England (PHE). COVID-19 Hospitalisation in England Surveillance System (CHESS) – daily reporting. [Accessed: 28 April 2020]. Available from: https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/...
    1. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;0:S1473-3099(20)30243-7. 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

MeSH terms