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. 2020 May;25(18):2000543.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543.

Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020

Carl Ab Pearson  1   2 , Cari Van Schalkwyk  2 , Anna M Foss  1 , Kathleen M O'Reilly  1 ; SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team  2   3 ; CMMID COVID-19 working group  1   4 ; Juliet Rc Pulliam  2
Affiliations

Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020

Carl Ab Pearson et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 May.

Abstract

For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.

Keywords: Africa; COVID-19; computer simulation; epidemics.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Distribution of times when countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases by 23 March 2020 arrive at 1,000 and 10,000 reported cases, with inset map indicating median expected arrival dates by country/territory, Africa, 2020 (n = 45 countries/territories)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Forecast validation for countries having already reached 1,000 cases, 2020 (n = 39 countries)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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