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. 2020 Jul 1:724:138201.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138201. Epub 2020 Mar 30.

Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

Jingui Xie  1 , Yongjian Zhu  2
Affiliations

Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

Jingui Xie et al. Sci Total Environ. .

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a severe public health problem globally. Both epidemiological and laboratory studies have shown that ambient temperature could affect the transmission and survival of coronaviruses. This study aimed to determine whether the temperature is an essential factor in the infection caused by this novel coronavirus.

Methods: Daily confirmed cases and meteorological factors in 122 cities were collected between January 23, 2020, to February 29, 2020. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases. We also used a piecewise linear regression to determine the relationship in detail.

Results: The exposure-response curves suggested that the relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases was approximately linear in the range of <3 °C and became flat above 3 °C. When mean temperature (lag0-14) was below 3 °C, each 1 °C rise was associated with a 4.861% (95% CI: 3.209-6.513) increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases. These findings were robust in our sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Our results indicate that mean temperature has a positive linear relationship with the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 3 °C. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline when the weather becomes warmer, which provides useful implications for policymakers and the public.

Keywords: COVID-19; China; Generalized additive model; Novel coronavirus pneumonia; Temperature.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Unlabelled Image
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Locations of 122 cities and cumulative confirmed cases in each city as of February 29, 2020.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Exposure-response curves for the effects of temperature on COVID-19 confirmed cases. The x axis is the mean temperature (7-day, 14-day and 21-day moving average). The y axis indicates the contribution of the smoother to the fitted values.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Exposure-response curves for the effects of temperature on COVID-19 confirmed cases after excluding Wuhan. The x axis is the mean temperature (7-day, 14-day and 21-day moving average). The y axis indicates the contribution of the smoother to the fitted values.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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