Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Aug;97(4):439-447.
doi: 10.1007/s11524-020-00441-x.

Modeling COVID-19 and Its Impacts on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Detention Facilities, 2020

Michael Irvine  1 , Daniel Coombs  2 , Julianne Skarha  3 , Brandon Del Pozo  3 , Josiah Rich  4 , Faye Taxman  5 , Traci C Green  6   7
Affiliations

Modeling COVID-19 and Its Impacts on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Detention Facilities, 2020

Michael Irvine et al. J Urban Health. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities house thousands of undocumented immigrants in environments discordant with the public health recommendations to reduce the transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Using ICE detainee population data obtained from the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) website as of March 2, 2020, we implemented a simple stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model to estimate the rate of COVID-19 transmission within 111 ICE detention facilities and then examined impacts on regional hospital intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Models considered three scenarios of transmission (optimistic, moderate, pessimistic) over 30-, 60-, and 90-day time horizons across a range of facility sizes. We found that 72% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under the optimistic scenario (R0 = 2.5), while nearly 100% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under a more pessimistic (R0 = 7) scenario. Although asynchronous outbreaks are more likely, day 90 estimates provide an approximation of total positive cases after all ICE facility outbreaks. We determined that, in the most optimistic scenario, coronavirus outbreaks among a minimum of 65 ICE facilities (59%) would overwhelm ICU beds within a 10-mile radius and outbreaks among a minimum of 8 ICE facilities (7%) would overwhelm local ICU beds within a 50-mile radius over a 90-day period, provided every ICU bed was made available for sick detainees. As policymakers seek to rapidly implement interventions that ensure the continued availability of life-saving medical resources across the USA, they may be overlooking the pressing need to slow the spread of COVID-19 infection in ICE's detention facilities. Preventing the rapid spread necessitates intervention measures such as granting ICE detainees widespread release from an unsafe environment by returning them to the community.

Keywords: COVID-19; Detention; Immigration; Migrant health; coronavirus.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Proportion of population infected with COVID-19 over time by R0 value and facility size
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. Kassie E. Detained: how the US built the world’s largest immigrant detention system. The Guradian Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/24/detained-us-largest-immi.... Accessed 16 April 2020.
    1. Alvarez P, Shoichet CE. First ICE detainee tests positive for coronavirus. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/ice-detainee-coronavirus/index.html. Accessed 15 April 2020.
    1. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. ICE guidance on COVID-19. Available at: https://www.ice.gov/coronavirus. Accessed 16 April 2020.
    1. Ellis B, Hicken M. Medical care in immigrant detention centers under fire. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/us/immigrant-medical-care-wellpath-invs/i.... Accessed 16 April 2020.
    1. Shoichet C, Bracho-Sanchez E. These doctors risked their careers to expose the dangers children face in immigrant family detention. CNN. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/23/health/ice-family-detention-whistleblower.... Accessed 16 April 2020.

Publication types