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. 2020 Apr;9(2):196-209.
doi: 10.21037/tau.2020.02.21.

Estimates of over-time trends in incidence and mortality of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2030

Qiliang Cai  1   2 , Yegang Chen  1 , Dingrong Zhang  1 , Jiancheng Pan  1 , Zunke Xie  1 , Chenjie Xu  2 , Shu Li  2 , Xinyu Zhang  2 , Ying Gao  3 , Jie Hou  4 , Xuemei Guo  5 , Xiaodong Zhou  1 , Baoshuai Zhang  6 , Fei Ma  7 , Wei Zhang  1 , Guiting Lin  8 , Zhongcheng Xin  1   9 , Yuanjie Niu  1 , Yaogang Wang  2
Affiliations

Estimates of over-time trends in incidence and mortality of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2030

Qiliang Cai et al. Transl Androl Urol. 2020 Apr.

Abstract

Background: This research aims to identify the current and future trends in the incidence and death rate of prostate cancer and to provide the necessary data support for making relevant health decisions.

Methods: This study used the collected data and methodologies to describe the incidence and mortality trends of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2016. Based on the data, this paper projected the future trends in prostate cancer incidence and death rate.

Results: In 2016, prostate cancer cases [1,435,742; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 1,293,395-1,618,655] were nearly 2.5-fold the number in 1990 (579,457; 95% UI, 521,564-616,107). Deaths increased by 2.0-fold from 191,687 (95% UI, 168,885-209,254) in 1990 to 380,916 (95% UI, 320,808-412,868) in 2016. The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 17.75 (95% UI, 18.91-15.95) in 1990 to 22.12 (95% UI, 19.92-24.91) in 2016, changing 24.62%. The global change of age-standardized death rate (ASDR) has declined slightly, but in some regions it shows a trend of growth. By sociodemographic index (SDI) sub-types, prostate cancer will frequently occur in high SDI countries from 1990 to 2030. Simultaneously, the highest mortality will present in low SDI countries.

Conclusions: Through projecting and analyzing incidence and mortality rate of prostate cancer, from 1990 to 2030, by different ages, regions and SDI sub-types, this result may reveal the relationship between prostate cancer and financial development. At the same time, the result also showed a sufficiently heavy burden of prostate cancer, but the burden varies greatly in each region. The burden is a challenge and will require attention for all levels of society. The current study is beneficial to formulate more specific and efficient policies.

Keywords: Prostate cancer; incidence; mortality; projection; time trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/tau.2020.02.21). The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global and regional prostate cancer ASIR by geography and gender, 1990 and 2016. ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ATG, Antigua and Barbuda; VCT, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; BRB, Barbados; COM, Comoros; MHL, Marshall Islands; KIR, Kiribati; MLT, Malta; DMA, Dominica; GRD, Grenada; MDV, Maldives; MUS, Mauritius; SLB, Solomon Islands; FSM, Federated States of Micronesia; VUT, Vanuatu; WSM, Samoa. SGP, Singapore; LCA, Saint Lucia; TTO, Trinidad and Tobago; TLS, Timor-Leste; SYC, Seychelles; FJI, Fiji; TON, Tonga.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global and regional prostate cancer ASDR by geography and gender, 1990 and 2016. ASDR, age-standardized death rate; ATG, Antigua and Barbuda; VCT, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; BRB, Barbados; COM, Comoros; MHL, Marshall Islands; KIR, Kiribati; MLT, Malta; DMA, Dominica; GRD, Grenada; MDV, Maldives; MUS, Mauritius; SLB, Solomon Islands; FSM, Federated States of Micronesia; VUT, Vanuatu; WSM, Samoa. SGP, Singapore; LCA, Saint Lucia; TTO, Trinidad and Tobago; TLS, Timor-Leste; SYC, Seychelles; FJI, Fiji; TON, Tonga.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Global and regional average annual percent change in age-standardized incidence and death rates for prostate cancer by geography and gender, 1990–2016. (A) Average annual percent change in age-standardized incidence rates for prostate cancer by geography and gender, 1990–2016; (B) average annual percent change in age-standardized death rates for prostate cancer by geography and gender, 1990–2016. ATG, Antigua and Barbuda; VCT, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; BRB, Barbados; COM, Comoros; MHL, Marshall Islands; KIR, Kiribati; MLT, Malta; DMA, Dominica; GRD, Grenada; MDV, Maldives; MUS, Mauritius; SLB, Solomon Islands; FSM, Federated States of Micronesia; VUT, Vanuatu; WSM, Samoa. SGP, Singapore; LCA, Saint Lucia; TTO, Trinidad and Tobago; TLS, Timor-Leste; SYC, Seychelles; FJI, Fiji; TON, Tonga.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Global and regional trends and predictions in age-standardized incidence and death rates for prostate cancer by SDI quintile, 1990–2030. (A) Trends and predictions in age-standardized incidence rates for prostate cancer by SDI quintile, 1990–2030; (B) trends and predictions in age-standardized death rates for prostate cancer by SDI quintile, 1990–2030. SDI, sociodemographic index.
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