Association Between Physician Risk Assessment, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and Utilization of Medical Services

Abstract

Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) are a common risk adjustment tool that may support alignment of care management resources with the clinical needs of a population. The authors examined the association between HCC scores and physician-determined clinical risk (CR) scores, annual charges, and utilization of medical care. CR score was defined as the anticipated risk for "ED or a hospital admission" within the following year. For each of the top 50 high-risk patients identified by total HCC score, the patient's primary care physician (PCP) entered a CR score based on their judgement. A total of 128 PCPs entered scores on 6167 patients of all ages across 31 primary care practices in the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple correlation between HCC scores and physician CR scores was 44.0% (P < 0.001); only 18.5% of PCPs had a correlation >60%. There was a positive association between CR score and charges (slope 19.7K; P < 0.001) and between HCC score and charges (slope 25.7K; P < 0.001). Both HCC and CR scores were positively correlated (P < 0.001) with medical/surgical admissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and utilization of advanced imaging. Across a broad range of patients, HCC scores had a moderate-to-weak correlation with physician-determined CR scores for patients' risk of an ED visit or hospital admission. Both CR scores and HCCs scores were positively associated with charges and utilization. HCCs may assist in the allocation of health resources, but the relatively weak correlation with physician-determined CR scores warrants caution.

Keywords: HCC; Hierarchical Condition Categories; care management; risk; risk stratification.