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. 2020 Jul:136:109883.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109883. Epub 2020 May 16.

Optimal policies for control of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Amin Yousefpour  1 , Hadi Jahanshahi  2 , Stelios Bekiros  3   4
Affiliations

Optimal policies for control of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Amin Yousefpour et al. Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jul.

Abstract

Understanding the early transmission dynamics of diseases and estimating the effectiveness of control policies play inevitable roles in the prevention of epidemic diseases. To this end, this paper is concerned with the design of optimal control strategies for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). A mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission based on Wuhan's data is considered. To solve the problem effectively and efficiently, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is proposed to achieve high-quality schedules for various factors including contact rate and transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class. By changing these factors, two optimal policies are successfully designed. This study has two main scientific contributions that are: (1) This is pioneer research that proposes policies regarding COVID-19, (2) This is also the first research that addresses COVID-19 and considers its economic consequences through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Numerical simulations conspicuously demonstrate that by applying the proposed optimal policies, governments could find useful and practical ways for control of the disease.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling; Multi-objective genetic algorithm; Novel coronavirus; Optimal control.

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Conflict of interest statement

This statement is to certify that no conflict of interest exits in the submission of this manuscript. Also, the manuscript is approved for publication by all authors. I would like to declare that the work described was an original research that has not been published previously, and not under consideration for publication elsewhere. All the authors listed have approved the manuscript that is enclosed.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Diagram of novel coronavirus .
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Pareto fronts of cost functions with strategy A.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The number of individuals with strategy A, (a) susceptible population (b) exposed population (c) symptomatic infected population (d) asymptomatic infected population (e) quarantined susceptible population (f) quarantined exposed population (g) quarantined infected population (h) recovered population.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Pareto fronts of cost functions with strategy B.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The number of individuals with strategy B, (a) susceptible population (b) exposed population (c) symptomatic infected population (d) asymptomatic infected population (e) quarantined susceptible population (f) quarantined exposed population (g) quarantined infected population (h) recovered population.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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