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Review
. 2020 Jul;30(4):e2111.
doi: 10.1002/rmv.2111. Epub 2020 May 19.

The basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World?

Bootan Rahman  1 , Evar Sadraddin  2 , Annamaria Porreca  3
Affiliations
Review

The basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World?

Bootan Rahman et al. Rev Med Virol. 2020 Jul.

Abstract

The virologically confirmed cases of a new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the world are rapidly increasing, leading epidemiologists and mathematicians to construct transmission models that aim to predict the future course of the current pandemic. The transmissibility of a virus is measured by the basic reproduction number ( R0 ), which measures the average number of new cases generated per typical infectious case. This review highlights the articles reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of COVID-19 R0 for the most affected areas. Moreover, the mean of all estimated R0 with median and interquartile range is calculated. According to these articles, the basic reproduction number of the virus epicentre Wuhan has now declined below the important threshold value of 1.0 since the disease emerged. Ongoing modelling will inform the transmission rates seen in the new epicentres outside of China, including Italy, Iran and South Korea.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARA-CoV-2; pandemic; the basic reproduction number ( R0).

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Smoothed curve showing the R 0 value in Wuhan city in the period from the 12th of December to the 1st of March 2020. The blue line marks travel restrictions starting on 23 January 2020, red line represents R 0, and grey shading represents 95% confidence intervals of the models estimate
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Dot chart showing the R 0 value estimated in the analysing papers coloured by location of interest in China
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Dot chart showing the R 0 value estimated in the analysing papers coloured by location of interest in the global
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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