Trends and projections of kidney cancer incidence at the global and national levels, 1990-2030: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

Abstract

Background: Identifying the temporal trends of kidney cancer (KC) incidence in both the past and the future at the global and national levels is critical for KC prevention.

Methods: We retrieved annual KC case data between 1990 and 2017 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the temporal trends of KC age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2017. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict KC incidence through 2030.

Results: Worldwide, the number of newly diagnosed KC cases increased from 207.3 thousand in 1990 to 393.0 thousand in 2017. The KC ASR increased from 4.72 per 100,000 to 4.94 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2018 and 2030, the number of KC cases is projected to increase further to 475.4 thousand (95% highest density interval [HDI] 423.9, 526.9). The KC ASR is predicted to decrease slightly to 4.46 per 100,000 (95% HDI 4.06, 4.86). A total of 90, 2, and 80 countries or territories are projected to experience increases, remain stable, and experience decreases in KC ASR between 2018 and 2030, respectively. In most developed countries, the KC incidence is forecasted to decrease irrespective of past trends. In most developing countries, the KC incidence is predicted to increase persistently through 2030.

Conclusions: KC incidence is predicted to decrease in the next decade, and this predicted decrease is mainly driven by the decreases in developed countries. More attention should be placed on developing countries.

Keywords: Incidence; Kidney cancer; Modeling study; Prediction; Temporal trends.

Fig. 1

The increasing trends in the numbers of kidney cancer cases between 1990 and 2030 at the global level by sex (a, both sexes; b, male; c, female). The error bar denotes the 95% highest density interval (HDI) of the prediction values

Fig. 2

The temporal trends of age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs, per 100,000) of kidney cancer between 1990 and 2030 at the global level in both sexes (a), males (b), and females (c). The open dots represent the observational values from GBD dataset, and the brick red shadow denotes the 95% highest density interval of prediction values. The predictive mean value is shown as a black solid line. The vertical dashed line indicates where the prediction starts

Fig. 3

The changing trends in the number of kidney cancer cases between 1990 and 2030 by age (a, 0–19 years; b, 20–39 years; c, 40–64 years; d, ≥65 years). The vertical dashed line indicates where the prediction starts

Fig. 4

The global distribution and the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs, per 100,000) of kidney cancer at the national level. (a ASR of kidney cancer in 2017; b ASR of kidney cancer in 2030; c AAPC of kidney cancer ASR between 1990 and 2017; d AAPC of kidney cancer ASR between 2018 and 2030)

Fig. 5

The correlations between the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in kidney cancer incidence in 1990–2017 and that in 2018–2030 at the national level, by sociodemographic index (SDI). The ρ and P values were derived from Pearson correlation tests