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. 2020 Aug:290:113104.
doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2020.113104. Epub 2020 May 19.

Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19

Roger S McIntyre  1 , Yena Lee  2
Affiliations

Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19

Roger S McIntyre et al. Psychiatry Res. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

Macroeconomic indicators, notably unemployment, are significant moderators of suicide. We projected the number of excess suicides in Canada as a consequence of the impact of COVID-19 on unemployment. Annual suicide mortality (2000-2018) and unemployment (2000-2019) data were derived from Statistics Canada. Time-trend regression models were used to evaluate and predict the number of excess suicides in 2020 and 2021 for two possible projection scenarios following the COVID-19 pandemic: 1) an increase in unemployment of 1.6% in 2020, 1.2% in 2021, or 2) an increase in unemployment of 10.7% in 2020, 8.9% in 2021. A percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 1.0% increase in suicide between 2000 and 2018. In the first scenario, the rise in unemployment rates resulted in a projected total of 418 excess suicides in 2020-2021 (suicide rate per 100,000: 11.6 in 2020). In the second scenario, the projected suicide rates per 100,000 increased to 14.0 in 2020 and 13.6 in 2021, resulting in 2114 excess suicides in 2020-2021. These results indicate that suicide prevention in the context of COVID-19-related unemployment is a critical priority. Furthermore, timely access to mental healthcare, financial provisions and social/labour support programs, as well as optimal treatment for mental disorders is urgently needed.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest None.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig. 1
We conducted a time-trend regression analysis of suicide and unemployment rates between 2000 and 2018 in Canada. Suicide mortality in 2019 was predicted using the 2019 unemployment rate of 5.7%. Suicide mortality in 2020 and 2021 were projected for three scenarios of change in unemployment rates: no change (i.e., 5.9% in 2020 and 6.0% in 2021 as published in the 2019 Federal Budget), moderate increase (i.e., 7.5% in 2020, 7.2% in 2021), and extreme increase (i.e., 16.6% in 2020, 14.9% in 2021).
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