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Meta-Analysis
. 2020 Nov;92(11):2543-2550.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.26041. Epub 2020 Jun 9.

Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID-19: Meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis

Wenqing He  1 , Grace Y Yi  2 , Yayuan Zhu  3
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID-19: Meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis

Wenqing He et al. J Med Virol. 2020 Nov.

Erratum in

  • Corrigendum.
    [No authors listed] [No authors listed] J Med Virol. 2022 Jan;94(1):425. doi: 10.1002/jmv.27367. Epub 2021 Oct 11. J Med Virol. 2022. PMID: 34633667 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

Abstract

The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID-19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta-analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41-3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77-5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%-73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%-4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.

Keywords: COVID-19; asymptomatic infection rate; basic reproduction number; case fatality rate; error-contaminated data; incubation time.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that there are no conflict of interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Meta‐analysis of the basic reproduction number together with the reported results in seven different studies. CI, confidence interval
Figure 2
Figure 2
Meta‐analysis of the mean incubation time (in day) together with the reported estimates in five different studies. CI, confidence interval
Figure 3
Figure 3
Meta‐analysis of estimating the asymptomatic infection rate together with the reported results in six different studies. CI, confidence interval
Figure 4
Figure 4
Meta‐analysis of the case fatality rate (in percent) together with the results reported in seven different studies. CI, confidence interval
Figure 5
Figure 5
Meta‐analysis of the case fatality rate (in percent) together with the results reported in seven different studies and the results from the Princess Diamond cruise. CI, confidence interval
Figure 6
Figure 6
Sensitivity analysis of estimating the case fatality rate with different asymptomatic rates accounted for. CI, confidence interval
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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