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. 2020 May 29;10(1):8801.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-65663-0.

Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

M O Molina  1 , E Sánchez  2 , C Gutiérrez  3
Affiliations

Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

M O Molina et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Heat waves are among the most relevant extreme climatic events due to their effects on society, agriculture and environment. The aim of this work is to improve our understanding of heat waves over the Mediterranean basin during the 21st century from an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Focus has been placed on sensitivities to forcing global models, emissions scenarios and the RCM resolution, being the first work based on Euro-CORDEX simulations to fully analyze future heat waves in the Mediterranean. Heat wave features are studied with Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI, duration) and Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId, intensity). Results indicate a large increase by the end of the century in both intensity and length of heat waves from all emissions scenarios, global models, and regional models at any resolution. Exceptional heat waves observed early on the century could then become normal by the end of this period. Forcing global models and emissions scenarios play a major role. Clear added value on spatial distribution and heat wave indices are obtained from global to regional models dynamical downscaling, related to the important coastal or orographic aspects widely present over the Mediterranean.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Heat Wave Duration Index daily (HWMId, a and b panels) and Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI, c and d panels) median and standard deviation (2071–2100) for the whole domain for RCP4.5 (a–c panels) and RCP8.5 (b–d panels) scenarios and 0.11° (coloured bars) and 0.44° (gray bars) resolutions. HWMId is a dimensionless expression of the heat wave maximum magnitude in a year and WSDI is the sum of heat wave days in a year.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily, averaged for the future climate period (2071–2100), for 0.11º resolution and RCP8.5 emission scenario. GCM simulations are presented in the first row in their original resolution. RCM simulations are presented ordered in columns, each one below the GCM that force it. Last figure represents the RCMs ensemble mean. Scale has been truncated to 125, considered as exceptional heat waves.
Figure 3
Figure 3
As Fig. 2 for Warm Spell Duration Index (days/year). Scale has been truncated to a value of 360.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) annual values averaged over each of the sub regions described with its corresponding acronym in Supplementary Fig. S1 for each of the RCP8.5–0.11° simulations for the whole 130 year period ranging from 1971 to 2100 in a 5 years running window. The black line refers to the ensemble mean.
Figure 5
Figure 5
As Fig. 4 for Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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