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. 2020 May 29;17(11):3872.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17113872.

Forecast Possible Risk for COVID-19 Epidemic Dissemination Under Current Control Strategies in Japan

Zhongxiang Chen  1 , Jun Yang  1 , Binxiang Dai  2
Affiliations

Forecast Possible Risk for COVID-19 Epidemic Dissemination Under Current Control Strategies in Japan

Zhongxiang Chen et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

COVID-19 has globally spread to over 4 million people and the epidemic situation in Japan is very serious. The purpose of this research was to assess the risk of COVID-19 epidemic dissemination in Japan by estimating the current state of epidemic dissemination and providing some epidemic prevention and control recommendations. Firstly, the period from 6 January to 31 March 2020 was divided into four stages and the relevant parameters were estimated according to the imported cases in Japan. The basic reproduction number of the current stage is 1.954 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.851-2.025), which means COVID-19 will spread quickly, and the self-healing rate of Japanese is about 0.495 (95% CI 0.437-0.506), with small variations in the four stages. Secondly, the results were applied to the actual reported cases from 1 to 5 April 2020, verifying the reliability of the estimated data using the accumulated reported cases located within the 95% confidence interval and the relative error of forecast data of five days being less than 2 . 5 % . Thirdly, considering the medical resources in Japan, the times the epidemic beds and ventilators become fully occupied are predicted as 5 and 15 May 2020, respectively. Keeping with the current situation, the final death toll in Japan may reach into the millions. Finally, based on experience with COVID-19 prevention and control in China, robust measures such as nationwide shutdown, store closures, citizens isolating themselves at home, and increasing PCR testing would quickly and effectively prevent COVID-19 spread.

Keywords: COVID-19; SEIHR epidemic model; basic reproduction number.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Transmission diagram for the COVID-19 model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The reported cured and death cases of the reported confirmed cases.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The accumulated reported cases and numerical values with 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The numerical cases for accumulated reported cases for five days.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Forecasts of the number of hospital cure cases, critical cases, and accumulated death cases.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Simulation results using different parameters.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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