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. 2020 Apr 29;6(18):eaaz6031.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz6031. eCollection 2020 May.

Global agricultural economic water scarcity

Lorenzo Rosa  1 , Davide Danilo Chiarelli  2 , Maria Cristina Rulli  2 , Jampel Dell'Angelo  3   1 , Paolo D'Odorico  1
Affiliations

Global agricultural economic water scarcity

Lorenzo Rosa et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

Water scarcity raises major concerns on the sustainable future of humanity and the conservation of important ecosystem functions. To meet the increasing food demand without expanding cultivated areas, agriculture will likely need to introduce irrigation in croplands that are currently rain-fed but where enough water would be available for irrigation. "Agricultural economic water scarcity" is, here, defined as lack of irrigation due to limited institutional and economic capacity instead of hydrologic constraints. To date, the location and productivity potential of economically water scarce croplands remain unknown. We develop a monthly agrohydrological analysis to map agricultural regions affected by agricultural economic water scarcity. We find these regions account for up to 25% of the global croplands, mostly across Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Sustainable irrigation of economically water scarce croplands could feed an additional 840 million people while preventing further aggravation of blue water scarcity.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Conceptual framework and extent of agricultural EWS.
Percentages represent fraction of the global cultivated area in each category. Shading indicates croplands affected by blue water scarcity (BWS) that can be sustainably irrigated with deficit irrigation. These areas are then reclassified as suitable for sustainable irrigation [i.e., with no blue water scarcity (NO BWS)], considering different deficit irrigation scenarios. Lack of irrigation in these areas is interpreted as agricultural EWS. See Box 1 for concepts and definitions about agricultural EWS.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. The geography of global agricultural water scarcity.
The map shows the global distribution of agricultural GWS, BWS, and EWS across global croplands. In the map, shown are croplands facing at least 1 month of water scarcity per year.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Monthly agricultural GWS, BWS, and EWS over global croplands.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Global irrigated land, blue water consumption, calorie production, and people potentially fed in presently irrigated areas (see the three blue columns to the left), and in croplands facing agricultural EWS (column to the right).
Maximum sustainable capacity over currently irrigated areas (green bars) is obtained in the 50% deficit irrigation scenario. Additional sustainable irrigation can be obtained by expanding irrigation to agricultural economic water scarce rain-fed areas and adopting deficit irrigation in rain-fed croplands affected by BWS.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5. Regional distribution of calorie production, people potentially fed, irrigated land, and blue water consumption over agricultural economic water scarce croplands.
The figure shows (i) current (sustainable and unsustainable) land, water, and calorie produced in irrigated lands considering irrigation at maximum potential; and (ii) additional land, water, and calorie that could be sustainably produced in economically water scarce lands also considering deficit irrigation scenarios. Results are represented by considering croplands facing at least 1 month of BWS and agricultural EWS along the year. Note that calorie production and people potentially fed are proportional.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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