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Meta-Analysis
. 2020 May;53(3):151-157.
doi: 10.3961/jpmph.20.076. Epub 2020 Mar 20.

Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Yousef Alimohamadi  1   2 , Maryam Taghdir  3 , Mojtaba Sepandi  3   4
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Yousef Alimohamadi et al. J Prev Med Public Health. 2020 May.

Abstract

Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.

Methods: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R0." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study.

Results: The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).

Conclusions: Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Meta-analysis; Outbreak; Public health.

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Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors have no conflicts of interest associated with the material presented in this paper.

Figures

Figure. 1.
Figure. 1.
PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) flow diagram for the studies included in the current meta-analysis.
Figure. 2.
Figure. 2.
Forest plot of the estimated basic reproduction number of coronavirus disease 2019. ES, effect size; CI, confidence interval.
Figure. 3.
Figure. 3.
Distribution of the estimated basic reproduction number according to the model used.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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