Incidence and risk factors for race-day jockey falls over fourteen years

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the incidence of, and risk factors for, race-day jockey falls occurring in Thoroughbred flat and jumps (hurdle and steeplechase) racing.

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Methods: Incidence rates for race-day jockey falls over 14 racing seasons in New Zealand (n=421,596 race-day starts) were calculated per 1000 rides. Univariable and multivariable analyses of jockey, horse and race level risk factors were conducted with Poisson regression in a generalized linear mixed model.

Results: Most races (97%, n=407,948 race starts) were flat racing with 10 races/race-day, whilst most jumps races were longer and had 2 races/race-day. The rate of jockey falls was higher in steeplechase racing (99.9/1000, 95% CI 92.2-108.4) than hurdle (53.2/1000, 95% CI 48.7-58.3) and flat racing (1.2/1000, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, p<0.001). Experienced athletes (both horse and jockey) had lower IRR. In flat racing, IRR increased linearly with the number of race-day rides by the jockey. In jumps races, IRR increased with a fall in a previous race (IRR 1.5/1000, 95% CI 1.3-1.7, p<0.001). A shorter jumps race distance reduced the IRR of a jockey fall.

Conclusions: Athlete experience was associated with risk of jockey falls. The linearity of race ride number with IRR and longer distance in jumps racing, indicated that cognitive or physiological fatigue may play a role in the risk of a race-day fall. This data highlights the role sport-specific conditioning programmes may have on reducing risk.

Keywords: Epidemiologic factors; Fatigue; Horse racing; Injury; Risk assessment; Thoroughbred.