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. 2020 Jul 17;6(3):e19969.
doi: 10.2196/19969.

Fluctuation of Public Interest in COVID-19 in the United States: Retrospective Analysis of Google Trends Search Data

Iltifat Husain  1 , Blake Briggs  1 , Cedric Lefebvre  1 , David M Cline  1 , Jason P Stopyra  1 , Mary Claire O'Brien  1 , Ramupriya Vaithi  1 , Scott Gilmore  2 , Chase Countryman  1
Affiliations

Fluctuation of Public Interest in COVID-19 in the United States: Retrospective Analysis of Google Trends Search Data

Iltifat Husain et al. JMIR Public Health Surveill. .

Abstract

Background: In the absence of vaccines and established treatments, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are fundamental tools to control coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission. NPIs require public interest to be successful. In the United States, there is a lack of published research on the factors that influence public interest in COVID-19. Using Google Trends, we examined the US level of public interest in COVID-19 and how it correlated to testing and with other countries.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine how public interest in COVID-19 in the United States changed over time and the key factors that drove this change, such as testing. US public interest in COVID-19 was compared to that in countries that have been more successful in their containment and mitigation strategies.

Methods: In this retrospective study, Google Trends was used to analyze the volume of internet searches within the United States relating to COVID-19, focusing on dates between December 31, 2019, and March 24, 2020. The volume of internet searches related to COVID-19 was compared to that in other countries.

Results: Throughout January and February 2020, there was limited search interest in COVID-19 within the United States. Interest declined for the first 21 days of February. A similar decline was seen in geographical regions that were later found to be experiencing undetected community transmission in February. Between March 9 and March 12, 2020, there was a rapid rise in search interest. This rise in search interest was positively correlated with the rise of positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 (6.3, 95% CI -2.9 to 9.7; P<.001). Within the United States, it took 52 days for search interest to rise substantially after the first positive case; in countries with more successful outbreak control, search interest rose in less than 15 days.

Conclusions: Containment and mitigation strategies require public interest to be successful. The initial level of COVID-19 public interest in the United States was limited and even decreased during a time when containment and mitigation strategies were being established. A lack of public interest in COVID-19 existed in the United States when containment and mitigation policies were in place. Based on our analysis, it is clear that US policy makers need to develop novel methods of communicating COVID-19 public health initiatives.

Keywords: COVID-19; Google Trends; Infodemiology; SARS-CoV-2; digital health; internet; public health; trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: JPS has received research funding from Abbott Point of Care and Roche Diagnostics. IH is a cofounder of Impathiq Inc and iMedicalApps.com. SG is a cofounder of Impathiq Inc.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Google Trends RSV (0-100) of the keyword coronavirus in the United States graphed over time and during the period of rising COVID-19 cases. Key events are shown on the timeline between January 14, 2020 and March 24, 2020, and the interval decline in search interest is highlighted. COVID-19: coronavirus disease. CA: California. COVID-19: coronavirus disease. JFK: John F. Kennedy International Airport. LAX: Los Angeles International Airport. NBA: National Basketball Association. NYC: New York City. SFO: San Francisco International Airport. US: United States. WA: Washington. WHO: World Health Organization.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Google Trends RSV (0-100) of the keyword coronavirus in New York City, NY and Seattle-Tacoma, WA from December 31, 2019 to March 24, 2020. RSV: relative search volume.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Graphs of Google Trends RSVs (0-100) for the keyword coronavirus vs time from December 31, 2019 to March 24, 2020 in Italy, Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong. RSV: relative search volume.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Number of days from the first COVID-19 case until the relative search volume on Google Trends for the search term coronavirus reached >90 in the United States, Italy, Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Cases of COVID-19 data linearized using logarithmic transformation with base of 2 graphed against the RSV for the Google search term coronavirus. A linear relationship was assumed, and a model was fit. RSV: relative search volume.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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