Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge

doi:10.1093/femspd/ftaa025

. 2020 Apr 1;78(3):ftaa025.

doi: 10.1093/femspd/ftaa025.

Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge

Eleni Papachristodoulou¹, Loukas Kakoullis^{2

3}, Konstantinos Parperis^{1

4}, George Panos^{1

5}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Internal Medicine, University of Cyprus Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
² Department of Internal Medicine, Nicosia General Hospital, Nicosia, Cyprus.
³ Department of Respiratory Medicine, University of Patras General Hospital, Patras, Greece.
⁴ Department of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, University of Arizona College of Medicine, Phoenix, Arizona, USA.
⁵ Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Patras General Hospital, Patras, Greece.

PMID: 32510562
PMCID: PMC7314002
DOI: 10.1093/femspd/ftaa025

Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge

Eleni Papachristodoulou et al. Pathog Dis. 2020.

. 2020 Apr 1;78(3):ftaa025.

doi: 10.1093/femspd/ftaa025.

Authors

Eleni Papachristodoulou¹, Loukas Kakoullis^{2

3}, Konstantinos Parperis^{1

4}, George Panos^{1

5}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Internal Medicine, University of Cyprus Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
² Department of Internal Medicine, Nicosia General Hospital, Nicosia, Cyprus.
³ Department of Respiratory Medicine, University of Patras General Hospital, Patras, Greece.
⁴ Department of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, University of Arizona College of Medicine, Phoenix, Arizona, USA.
⁵ Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Patras General Hospital, Patras, Greece.

PMID: 32510562
PMCID: PMC7314002
DOI: 10.1093/femspd/ftaa025

Abstract

Effective herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will be determined on many factors: the percentage of the immune population, the length and effectiveness of the immune response and the stability of the viral epitopes. The required percentage of immune individuals has been estimated to be 50-66% of the population which, given the current infection rates, will take long to be achieved. Furthermore, data from SARS-CoV suggest that the duration of immunity may not be sufficiently significant, while the immunity response against SARS-CoV-2 may not be efficiently effective in all patients, as relapses have already been reported. In addition, the development of mutant strains, which has already been documented, can cause the reemergence of the epidemic. In conclusion, the development of an effective vaccine is an urgent necessity, as long-term natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may not be sufficient for the control of the current and future outbreaks.

Keywords: COVID-19; antibodies; coronavirus; outbreak; pandemic; quarantine.

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References

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[1] Biswas A, Bhattacharjee U, Chakrabarti AK et al. .. Emergence of novel coronavirus and COVID-19: whether to stay or die out? Crit Rev Microbiol. 2020;0:1–12. - PMC - PubMed

[2] Biswas A, Bhattacharjee U, Chakrabarti AK et al. .. Emergence of novel coronavirus and COVID-19: whether to stay or die out? Crit Rev Microbiol. 2020;0:1–12. - PMC - PubMed

[3] Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;20:533–4. - PMC - PubMed

[4] Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;20:533–4. - PMC - PubMed

[5] Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E et al. .. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368:860–8. - PMC - PubMed

[6] Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E et al. .. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science. 2020;368:860–8. - PMC - PubMed

[7] Kwok KO, Lai F, Wei WI et al. .. Herd immunity - estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries. J Infect. 2020;80:e32–3. - PMC - PubMed

[8] Kwok KO, Lai F, Wei WI et al. .. Herd immunity - estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries. J Infect. 2020;80:e32–3. - PMC - PubMed

[9] La Maestra S, Abbondandolo A, De Flora S. Epidemiological trends of COVID‐19 epidemic in Italy during March 2020. From 1,000 to 100,000 cases. J Med Virol. 2020:DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25908. - PMC - PubMed

[10] La Maestra S, Abbondandolo A, De Flora S. Epidemiological trends of COVID‐19 epidemic in Italy during March 2020. From 1,000 to 100,000 cases. J Med Virol. 2020:DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25908. - PMC - PubMed

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Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge

Affiliations

Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

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