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[Preprint]. 2020 Feb 17:2020.01.28.20019299.
doi: 10.1101/2020.01.28.20019299.

Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan to Cities in China

Zhanwei Du  1 , Lin Wang  2 , Simon Cauchemez  2 , Xiaoke Xu  3 , Xianwen Wang  4 , Benjamin J Cowling  5 , Lauren Ancel Meyers  1   6
Affiliations

Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan to Cities in China

Zhanwei Du et al. medRxiv. .

Update in

Abstract

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain an emerging coronavirus (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 cities in China before the quarantine. The expected risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas of China.

Keywords: Wuhan; coronavirus; epidemiology; importation.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Risks for COVID-19 transportation from Wuhan, China before a quarantine was imposed on January 23, 2020.
a) Daily travel volume to and from Wuhan, given as a percentage of the Wuhan population. The shading on the right indicates the start of Spring Festival season on January 10, 2020, which is a peak travel period in China. b) Estimated and reported daily prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan. The green line and shading indicate model estimates of cumulative cases since December 1, 2019 with 95% CrI bounds, based on an epidemic doubling time of 7.38 days (95% CrI 5.58–8.92 days). Black points are cumulative confirmed case counts during January 1–22, 2020 (11). The shading on the right indicates the start of Spring Festival season. c) Map generated by using Mapbox (https://www.mapbox.com) representing the probability that ≥1 COVID-19 case infected in Wuhan traveled to cities in China by January 22, 2020. The 131 cities above a risk threshold of 50% are indicated in orange; the 239 cities below the threshold are indicated in blue.
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References

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