Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 May 8;117(19):329-335.
doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2020.0329.

Estimated Use of Intensive Care Beds Due to COVID-19 in Germany Over Time

Andreas Stang  1 , Maximilian Stang, Karl-Heinz Jöckel
Affiliations

Estimated Use of Intensive Care Beds Due to COVID-19 in Germany Over Time

Andreas Stang et al. Dtsch Arztebl Int. .

Abstract

Background: There is concern in Germany that the capacity of intensive care unit (ICU) beds may not be sufficient for the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim was to determine the maximum daily number of COVID-19 cases requiring intensive care from 11 April through 30 June 2020.

Methods: We assumed three non-exponential scenarios for the development of the cumulative case numbers up to 30 June 2020 (linear, slow quadratic, and fast quadratic). We assumed that 3-10% of of patients would require intensive care, that 8 days would elapse from a positive test to the need for intensive care, and that intensive care would be necessary for 14 or 20 days.

Results: Extrapolation of the maximum registered daily COVID-19 cases reveals a range of 4133 to 12 233 cases. Assuming that 3-10% of newly detected COVID-19 cases become intensive care patients and the average length of ICU stay is between 14 and 20 days, we arrive at a maximum daily number of ICU cases between 1989 (linear extrapolation, 3% ICU, 14 days in ICU) and 20 966 (fast quadratic extrapolation, 10% ICU, 20 days in ICU).

Conclusion: Our results give no rise for concern that triage of COVID-19 patients may become necessary in Germany. However, the occupancy of ICU beds should be managed centrally to ensure optimal use of bed capacity. If, contrary to expectations, an exponential increase in case numbers should occur after all, our results will become invalid.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Observed cumulative and daily numbers of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases up to 10 April 2020 (data from Robert Koch Institute [4]) Vertical blue line: start of lockdown on 23 March 2020; vertical dotted lines: Sundays
Figure 2
Figure 2
Observed (up to 10 April 2020) and extrapolated cumulative and daily numbers of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Green line: linear extrapolation of the cumulative number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Blue line: slow quadratic extrapolation of the cumulative number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Red line: fast quadratic extrapolation of the cumulative number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Vertical dashed line: after this line the daily numbers are based on the extrapolated number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated daily numbers of patients with COVID-19 requiring ICU treatment Left: the proportion requiring 14 days of ICU treatment, starting on average 8 days after diagnosis (3%) Right: the proportion requiring 20 days of ICU treatment, starting on average 8 days after diagnosis (3%) Green line: linear extrapolation of the cumulative number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Blue line: slow quadratic extrapolation of the cumulative number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Red line: fast quadratic extrapolation of the cumulative number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases Vertical dashed line: to the right of this line (19 April 2020) the estimated daily ICU cases are based on extrapolated numbers of daily registered COVID-19 cases.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Gillmann B. RKI: Zahl der Intensivbetten wird nicht reichen. Handelsblatt. 3. April 2020. www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/corona-epidemie-rki-zahl-der-in... (last accessed on 5 April 2020)
    1. Täglicher Lagebericht des RKI zur Coronavirus-Krankheit-2019 (COVID-19) Aktualisierter Stand für Deutschland 9.4.2020: www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/... (last accessed on 10 April 2020)
    1. DIVI-Intensivregister. www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister (last accessed on 17 April 2020)
    1. Robert Koch-Institut. COVID-19-Dashboard. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4 (last accessed on 11 April 2020)
    1. Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias. Actualización nº 52. Enfermedad por el coronavirus (COVID-19). 22.03.2020 (datos consolidados a las 21:00 horas del 21.03.2020). Madrid: Centro de Coordinación de Alertas y Emergencias Sanitarias; 2020. www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-Ch... (last accessed on 11 April 2020)