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. 2020 Feb 17:35:45.
doi: 10.11604/pamj.2020.35.45.18257. eCollection 2020.

Predictors of incident heart failure in a cohort of patients with ischemic heart disease

Senbeta Guteta Abdissa  1
Affiliations

Predictors of incident heart failure in a cohort of patients with ischemic heart disease

Senbeta Guteta Abdissa. Pan Afr Med J. .

Abstract

Introduction: heart failure (HF) is a major complication following ischemic heart disease (IHD) and it adversely affects the outcome. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of HF in patients with IHD.

Methods: this is a 24-month longitudinal retrospective study of all consecutive patients diagnosed with IHD. Endpoints were incident HF and time to incident HF. Patients with a previous history of HF were excluded.

Results: a total of 306 patients with IHD were included in the analysis. The 6-month, 12-month and 18-month cumulative risk of developing incident HF were 18.8%, 28.4%, and 53.5% respectively. Increasing age, female gender, diabetes mellitus (DM), lower hemoglobin, and dilated left atrium were strong predictors of incident HF. Predictors of shorter time to incident HF were coexisting DM and hypertension, and the presence of dilated left atrium in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction < 40%. The strongest predictor of incident HF in patients with DM was a higher level of LDL cholesterol.

Conclusion: patients with IHD have a higher risk of incident HF. Strong predictors of incident HF in these patients were increasing age, female gender, DM, lower hemoglobin and dilated left atrium. Such patients need close follow-up and more intensive treatment.

Keywords: Incidence; heart failure; ischemic heart disease; predictors.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author declares no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
A) Line graph of the LVEF of IHD patients with and without HF across the four age groups; B) Kaplan Meier plot showing the risk of incident HF over 24-month period for an index IHD between 2015 and 2017
Figure 2
Figure 2
A) Kaplan-Meier curves for incident heart failure stratified by DM; B) Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox Hazard model for incident heart failure stratified by DM and HTN
Figure 3
Figure 3
Kaplan Meier plot illustrating time to incident HF for the different LVEF categories in patients with dilated LA: LVEF < 40% (12.9, 95% CI 10.1-15.8); LVEF 40-49% (18.0, 95% CI 4.9-21.2), LVEF 50% and above (18.6, 95% CI 16.2-21.0)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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