[A scenario to safely ease the covid-19 lockdown while allowing economic recovery]

Abstract

If they work as expected, the strict containment measures enforced to stop the French Covid-19 epidemic will leave a large proportion of the population "naive" about the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In these conditions, how can we prevent the epidemic from rebounding, at a time when this restrictive policy will soon become untenable economically and socially? Based on the figures, now well known, of the lethality of covid-19 according to age classes, I suggest that a gradual release of the containment be instituted, which will keep retirees in isolation (the 65+ age class), whose risk is maximal and the impact on economic production the lowest. This scenario might be applicable to most European countries that enforce mandatory retirement ages for most of workers.

Keywords: Covid-19; age-dependent lethality; economic recovery; lockdown termination.