Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Aug:97:382-385.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.044. Epub 2020 Jun 16.

COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: Where are we at?

Andréa de Paula Lobo  1 , Augusto César Cardoso-Dos-Santos  2 , Marli Souza Rocha  2 , Rejane Sobrino Pinheiro  3 , João Matheus Bremm  2 , Eduardo Marques Macário  2 , Wanderson Kleber de Oliveira  2 , Giovanny Vinícius Araújo de França  2
Affiliations

COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: Where are we at?

Andréa de Paula Lobo et al. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Aug.

Abstract

Objetive: To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU).

Method: Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50th confirmed case as time unit.

Results: Brazil reached its 50th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31st to the 63rd day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions.

Conclusions: In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.

Keywords: Brazil; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Joinpoint; Times series.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

    1. Burki T. COVID-19 in Latin America. The Lancet. Issue 5. 2020:547–548. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30303-0. May 01. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. National Cancer Institute . Surveillance Research Program. National Cancer Institute; Washington: 2015. Statistical Methodology and Applications Branch. Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.2.0 - April 2015.
    1. Nussbaumer-Streit B., Mayr V., Dobrescu AIulia, Chapman A., Persad E., Klerings I., Wagner G., Siebert U., Christof C., Zachariah C., Gartlehner G. Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2020 doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013574. Issue 4. Art. No.: CD013574. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Fang Y., Nie Y., Penny M. Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis. J Med Virol. 2020;92:645–659. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25750. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Síntese de indicadores sociais: uma análise das condições de vida da população Brazileira:2018. IBGE. 2018. n. 39. 151 p.