Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Abstract

Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.

Figure 1

Meteorological anomalies and autochthonous dengue transmission data from Córdoba, Argentina for the period 01 July 2008 –31 June 2017. (a) Deviation of mean monthly precipitation (anomalies) from the thirty-year monthly precipitation average for a given month. (b) Deviation of mean monthly minimum temperature (anomalies) from the thirty-year monthly minimum temperature average for a given month. (c) Number of new autochthonous dengue cases reported each month. All thirty-year averages and monthly anomalies were calculated from 1987–2017 using daily climate data from the Observatory meteorological station (31.42° S, 64.20° W) provided by the National Meteorological Service of Argentina. Dengue cases were extracted from weekly epidemological bulletins provided by the Argentina Health Secretary.