Development a clinical prediction model of the neurological outcome for patients with coma and survived 24 hours after cardiopulmonary resuscitation

Abstract

Background: Cardiac arrest is still a global public health problem at present. The neurological outcome is the core indicator of the prognosis of cardiac arrest. However, there is no effective means or tools to predict the neurological outcome of patients with coma and survived 24 hours after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR).

Hypothesis: Therefore, we expect to construct a prediction model to predict the neurological outcome for patients with coma and survived 24 hours after successful CPR.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was used to construct a prediction model of the neurological function for patients with coma and survived 24 hours after successful CPR. From January 2007 to December 2015, a total of 262 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results: The predictive model was developed using preselected variables by a systematic review of the literature. Finally, we get five sets of models (three sets of construction models and two sets of internal verification models) which with similar predictive value. The stepwise model, which including seven variables (age, noncardiac etiology, nonshockable rhythm, bystander CPR, total epinephrine dose, APTT, and SOFA score), was the simplest model, so we choose it as our final predictive model. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), specificity, and sensitivity of the stepwise model were respectively 0.82 (0.77, 0.87), 0.72and 0.82. The AUC, specificity, and sensitivity of the bootstrap stepwise (BS stepwise) model were respectively 0.82 (0.77, 0.87), 0.71, and 0.82.

Conclusion: This new and validated predictive model may provide individualized estimates of neurological function for patients with coma and survived 24 hours after successful CPR using readily obtained clinical risk factors. External validation studies are required further to demonstrate the model's accuracy in diverse patient populations.

Keywords: cardiac arrest; cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR); neurological function; prediction model.

FIGURE 1

The ROC curve of the predictive model

FIGURE 2

The calibration curve of the stepwise model and bootstrap (BS) stepwise model