doi: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00223.
eCollection 2020.
COVID-19: The Conjunction of Events Leading to the Coronavirus Pandemic and Lessons to Learn for Future Threats
Affiliations
- PMID: 32574324
- PMCID: PMC7235412
- DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00223
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COVID-19: The Conjunction of Events Leading to the Coronavirus Pandemic and Lessons to Learn for Future Threats
Front Med (Lausanne).
.
No abstract available
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; dynamic; emerging diseases; preparedness.
Figures
Dynamic of COVID-19. The emergence of an infectious disease is an accidental process that cannot be predicted. An unidentified animal or animal parts contaminated by a virus initially originating from bats, i.e., SARS-CoV-2, was brought into contact with humans in October–November 2019, starting a latent infection. The main drivers of the epidemic and then of the pandemic are human mobility during the incubation phase and the amplification effect of markets, while the extension into a pandemic was due to the dimensions and speed of mobility of goods and people in our global world. However, this did not trigger the outbreak. What favored the epidemic and then the pandemic is the exceptional conjunction in Wuhan of several independent and aggravating events: (i) the occurrence of three major celebrations in a short time, for which the demand of food and natural products was exceptionally high in December 2019; (ii) the resulting movement and storage of large amounts of food including living animals in December 2019; (iii) the very high attendance of markets in December 2019, generating an amplification loop; (iv) very high human mobility for the holidays in January 2020; (v) intensive international mobility of goods and people in January and February 2020; (vi) a long period of silent incubation of SARS-CoV-2. Text in red corresponds to situations where no action can be undertaken. Text and boxes in deep green correspond to situations where preventive actions MUST be implemented to prevent future emergence of SARS-related coronaviruses. Crosses in deep green indicate major transmission steps that can be blocked. Text and boxes in violet correspond to situations where post-event reactions are currently implemented but which cannot prevent a pandemic.
