National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability

Abstract

Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and coresidence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries' populations to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries' vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.

Keywords: COVID-19; aging; demography; global; households.

Fig. 1.

COVID-19 vulnerability to national age and coresidence patterns. Estimated number of direct (dark) and indirect (light) deaths per 100,000 individuals if 10% of the population living in private households were to be infected by COVID-19 at random. Analyses based on most recent available data from either 2000 or 2010 census rounds.

Fig. 2.

Estimated number of direct (dark) and indirect (light) deaths per 100,000 individuals if primary infections of specific age groups are avoided. Data are from 2010 census round. Individuals from each age group who were selected in the 10% random draw are recoded as not infected before calculating direct deaths and simulating within household transmission.