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[Preprint]. 2020 Jun 5:2020.06.04.20121863.
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20121863.

COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries

Simiao Chen  1   2 , Klaus Prettner  3 , Michael Kuhn  4 , Pascal Geldsetzer  1   5 , Chen Wang  2   6   7   8 , Till Bärnighausen  1   2   9   10 , David E Bloom  10
Affiliations

COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries

Simiao Chen et al. medRxiv. .

Update in

  • Climate and the spread of COVID-19.
    Chen S, Prettner K, Kuhn M, Geldsetzer P, Wang C, Bärnighausen T, Bloom DE. Chen S, et al. Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 27;11(1):9042. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-87692-z. Sci Rep. 2021. PMID: 33907202 Free PMC article.

Abstract

Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Scatterplot of the logarithm of cases per million inhabitants against absolute latitude in degrees for the full sample of countries.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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