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. 2020 Jun 4:13:519-522.
doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S255793. eCollection 2020.

Spatial Analysis of Global Variability in Covid-19 Burden

Larry E Miller  1 , Ruemon Bhattacharyya  1 , Anna L Miller  1
Affiliations

Spatial Analysis of Global Variability in Covid-19 Burden

Larry E Miller et al. Risk Manag Healthc Policy. .

Abstract

Background: Since the first occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), a number of online tools have become available to assist with tracking Covid-19 prevalence. Yet we are unaware of resources that provide country-specific Covid-19 incidence data.

Methods: We undertook a descriptive analysis of the global impact of Covid-19 using data reported on March 17, 2020. The prevalence of Covid-19 cases, fatalities attributed to Covid-19, and the case fatality rate for each of the 238 countries were accessed from the World Health Organization global Covid-19 tracking site, and we additionally calculated Covid-19 incidence based on country-specific population data. We determined the country-specific point prevalence and incidence of Covid-19 and associated deaths while using geocoded data to display their spatial distribution with geographic heat maps.

Results: The analysis included 193,197 Covid-19 cases and 7859 associated deaths. The point prevalence was highest in China (80,881), Italy (31,506), Iran (16,169), and Spain (11,312); no other country reported more than 10,000 cases. The incidence (per million population) was highest in San Marino (3389) followed by Iceland (645) and Italy (521); no other country had an incidence above 400 per million population.

Conclusion: Countries with a high Covid-19 prevalence may not have a high incidence, and vice versa. Public health agencies that provide real-time infection tracking tools should report country-specific Covid-19 incidence metrics, in addition to prevalence data.

Keywords: Covid-19; coronavirus; incidence; prevalence.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global Covid-19 point prevalence (top) and incidence per million population (bottom). Data current as of March 17, 2020.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global Covid-19 fatality point prevalence (top), incidence per million population (middle), and case fatality rate (bottom). Countries with less than 20 confirmed Covid-19 cases were excluded from the case fatality rate analysis due to poor estimate precision. Data current as of March 17, 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World population prospects: the 2019 revision; 2020. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/. Accessed March17, 2020.

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